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Prediction for CME (2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-26T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32225/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the S in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S22W05, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T19:38Z. This event is closely preceded by CME 2024-07-26T20:48Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front. Arrival signature is characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to abpve 10 p/cc. The front of this CME likely merged with two preceding CMEs and with the front of a faster following CME, forming one combined front.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T17:02Z (-9.08h, +9.08h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): -1.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 20.0

initial CME speed: 646.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-07-27T00:52Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 15.70 hour(s)
Difference: 6.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-07-29T07:38Z

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